Chocolate has increased in price over the past year (along with everything else!). With more price hikes still to come this year, chocolate is becoming an occasional luxury, rather than the every day treat we've all gotten used to. So why is this happening?
Cacao trees grow mostly along the equator and are very susceptible to climate change. Nearly two thirds of the world's cocoa is grown in West Africa - mostly in Ghana and the Ivory Coast. They have seen some extreme El Niño weather patterns of late, with heavy rainfall and flooding and very hot and dry seasons. West Africa had a huge outbreak of black pod disease after some extreme wet weather late in 2023. Black pod disease is a fungal disease that tends to spike after wet weather and if not treated, can destroy an entire harvest. Although there are pesticides that can control the outbreaks, a lot of cocoa farmers do not get paid very well, and so either cannot afford them or don't even have access to them. When the dry weather followed this, cacao swollen shoot virus took hold. It's a disease spread by an insect called "mealybug" and it only occurs in West Africa. Cacao yields decrease by around 25% in the first year of infection and 50% in the second year, and usually kills a tree within three to four years. Over 200 million trees have been claimed by this disease already.
Cocoa is grown in the poorer countries in the world, and the majority of farmers do not get paid a living wage. Many farmers have been tempted away to grow more lucrative crops like rubber and cotton, which is reducing how much cacao can be grown as well. As it takes two to three years for a new cacao tree to produce fruit, many farmers won't be able to wait that long and may start growing other crops in the meantime. Illegal gold mines have taken over large areas of cocoa producing land in Ghana, sometimes paying farmers a larger amount of money than what they would make from the cacao, and sometimes forcing them off the land. The mining then makes the land unsuitable to grow cacao trees on.
Cocoa production has been a decline for the past three years, and most chocolate companies have been able to absorb the rising costs, thinking it would be a fairly short term issue. Unfortunately, we are only now seeing how badly the cocoa trees have been affected, and it's likely that things are not going to get better for a while yet. We are going to see more price increases along with smaller chocolate bars to try and keep prices as low as possible.
Companies like Veliche and Callebaut will be increasing prices at least once more in 2024, so if you can, stock up before the middle of September or move to chocolate substitutes for your cakes.
There will still be chocolate available, it'll just be more expensive. Other countries do produce cacao, and will most likely increase their production. There is research underway to try and produce more hardy cacao trees that are less susceptible to disease and pests. There is also a rise in cocoa alternatives: using things like oats and sunflower seeds and turning them into substitutes for cocoa mass and butter - exciting stuff!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_pod_disease
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cacao_swollen_shoot_virus
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/westafrica-cocoa/
https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/cocoa-prices